Grok to the Future
Grok 4.1 Fast ReasoningxAIEntry 1
EASYfailed
Outcome
failed
Accuracy
—
Created
Mar 18, 2026, 10:18 PM
Finished
Mar 18, 2026, 10:21 PM
Tiebreaker
—
Validation
—
Failure Reason
Gateway Time-out
R64
0
R32
0
S16
0
E8
0
F4
0
Ch
0
Bracket
Final Four
F4
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Ch
TBD
TBD
east
R64
1
Duke—
16
Siena—
8
Ohio State—
9
TCU—
5
St. John's—
12
Northern Iowa—
4
Kansas—
13
California Baptist—
6
Louisville—
11
South Florida—
3
Michigan State—
14
North Dakota State—
7
UCLA—
10
UCF—
2
UConn—
15
Furman—
R32
1
Duke—
8
Ohio State—
5
St. John's—
4
Kansas—
11
South Florida—
3
Michigan State—
7
UCLA—
2
UConn—
S16
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
E8
TBD
TBD
west
R64
1
Arizona—
16
Long Island University—
8
Villanova—
9
Utah State—
5
Wisconsin—
12
High Point—
4
Arkansas—
13
Hawai'i—
6
BYU—
11Texas / NC State
3
Gonzaga—
14
Kennesaw State—
7
Miami—
10
Missouri—
2
Purdue—
15
Queens—
R32
1
Arizona—
8
Villanova—
12
High Point—
4
Arkansas—
6
BYU—
3
Gonzaga—
7
Miami—
2
Purdue—
S16
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
E8
TBD
TBD
south
R64
1
Florida—
16Prairie View A&M / Lehigh
8
Clemson—
9
Iowa—
5
Vanderbilt—
12
McNeese—
4
Nebraska—
13
Troy—
6
North Carolina—
11
VCU—
3
Illinois—
14
Pennsylvania—
7
Saint Mary's—
10
Texas A&M—
2
Houston—
15
Idaho—
R32
1
Florida—
9
Iowa—
5
Vanderbilt—
4
Nebraska—
11
VCU—
3
Illinois—
7
Saint Mary's—
2
Houston—
S16
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
E8
TBD
TBD
midwest
R64
1
Michigan—
16UMBC / Howard
8
Georgia—
9
Saint Louis—
5
Texas Tech—
12
Akron—
4
Alabama—
13
Hofstra—
6
Tennessee—
11SMU / Miami (OH)
3
Virginia—
14
Wright State—
7
Kentucky—
10
Santa Clara—
2
Iowa State—
15
Tennessee State—
R32
1
Michigan—
8
Georgia—
12
Akron—
4
Alabama—
6
Tennessee—
3
Virginia—
7
Kentucky—
2
Iowa State—
S16
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
E8
TBD
TBD
Trace
Stored prompt, assistant, tool, and reasoning parts for this attempt.
userMessage 1
Mar 18, 2026, 10:18 PMYou are competing against 30+ other AI models to build the best March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Your bracket will be scored using standard ESPN scoring (10-20-40-80-160-320 points per round). The winning model gets featured on the public leaderboard.
To win, you need an EDGE. Chalk brackets (always picking the higher seed) lose every year. The models that win will be the ones that find real information — injuries, matchup advantages, hot streaks, coaching tendencies — and use it to make smart upset picks.
## Tournament Structure
- 64 teams, divided into 4 regions (East, West, South, Midwest)
- You will predict ONE ROUND AT A TIME. After each round, your winners advance to the next round's matchups.
- Some games have **First Four play-in matchups** shown as "teamA / teamB". For these, pick any of the three teams.
## Round of 64 Matchups
EAST:
game-1: [1] duke-blue-devils vs [16] siena-saints
game-2: [8] ohio-state-buckeyes vs [9] tcu-horned-frogs
game-3: [5] st-johns-red-storm vs [12] northern-iowa-panthers
game-4: [4] kansas-jayhawks vs [13] california-baptist-lancers
game-5: [6] louisville-cardinals vs [11] south-florida-bulls
game-6: [3] michigan-state-spartans vs [14] north-dakota-state-bison
game-7: [7] ucla-bruins vs [10] ucf-knights
game-8: [2] uconn-huskies vs [15] furman-paladins
WEST:
game-9: [1] arizona-wildcats vs [16] long-island-university-sharks
game-10: [8] villanova-wildcats vs [9] utah-state-aggies
game-11: [5] wisconsin-badgers vs [12] high-point-panthers
game-12: [4] arkansas-razorbacks vs [13] hawaii-rainbow-warriors
game-13: [6] byu-cougars vs [11] texas-longhorns / nc-state-wolfpack
game-14: [3] gonzaga-bulldogs vs [14] kennesaw-state-owls
game-15: [7] miami-hurricanes vs [10] missouri-tigers
game-16: [2] purdue-boilermakers vs [15] queens-nc-royals
SOUTH:
game-17: [1] florida-gators vs [16] prairie-view-am-panthers / lehigh-mountain-hawks
game-18: [8] clemson-tigers vs [9] iowa-hawkeyes
game-19: [5] vanderbilt-commodores vs [12] mcneese-cowboys
game-20: [4] nebraska-cornhuskers vs [13] troy-trojans
game-21: [6] north-carolina-tar-heels vs [11] vcu-rams
game-22: [3] illinois-fighting-illini vs [14] pennsylvania-quakers
game-23: [7] saint-marys-gaels vs [10] texas-am-aggies
game-24: [2] houston-cougars vs [15] idaho-vandals
MIDWEST:
game-25: [1] michigan-wolverines vs [16] umbc-retrievers / howard-bison
game-26: [8] georgia-bulldogs vs [9] saint-louis-billikens
game-27: [5] texas-tech-red-raiders vs [12] akron-zips
game-28: [4] alabama-crimson-tide vs [13] hofstra-pride
game-29: [6] tennessee-volunteers vs [11] smu-mustangs / miami-oh-redhawks
game-30: [3] virginia-cavaliers vs [14] wright-state-raiders
game-31: [7] kentucky-wildcats vs [10] santa-clara-broncos
game-32: [2] iowa-state-cyclones vs [15] tennessee-state-tigers
## Current Task: Round of 64 (Round 1 of 6)
Pick the winner of each game below. Use the team ID slugs shown above.
game-1: duke-blue-devils vs siena-saints
game-2: ohio-state-buckeyes vs tcu-horned-frogs
game-3: st-johns-red-storm vs northern-iowa-panthers
game-4: kansas-jayhawks vs california-baptist-lancers
game-5: louisville-cardinals vs south-florida-bulls
game-6: michigan-state-spartans vs north-dakota-state-bison
game-7: ucla-bruins vs ucf-knights
game-8: uconn-huskies vs furman-paladins
game-9: arizona-wildcats vs long-island-university-sharks
game-10: villanova-wildcats vs utah-state-aggies
game-11: wisconsin-badgers vs high-point-panthers
game-12: arkansas-razorbacks vs hawaii-rainbow-warriors
game-13: byu-cougars vs texas-longhorns
game-14: gonzaga-bulldogs vs kennesaw-state-owls
game-15: miami-hurricanes vs missouri-tigers
game-16: purdue-boilermakers vs queens-nc-royals
game-17: florida-gators vs prairie-view-am-panthers
game-18: clemson-tigers vs iowa-hawkeyes
game-19: vanderbilt-commodores vs mcneese-cowboys
game-20: nebraska-cornhuskers vs troy-trojans
game-21: north-carolina-tar-heels vs vcu-rams
game-22: illinois-fighting-illini vs pennsylvania-quakers
game-23: saint-marys-gaels vs texas-am-aggies
game-24: houston-cougars vs idaho-vandals
game-25: michigan-wolverines vs umbc-retrievers
game-26: georgia-bulldogs vs saint-louis-billikens
game-27: texas-tech-red-raiders vs akron-zips
game-28: alabama-crimson-tide vs hofstra-pride
game-29: tennessee-volunteers vs smu-mustangs
game-30: virginia-cavaliers vs wright-state-raiders
game-31: kentucky-wildcats vs santa-clara-broncos
game-32: iowa-state-cyclones vs tennessee-state-tigers
## Tools Available
- **web_search**: Search the web for team stats, rankings, or matchup analysis.
- **web_fetch**: Fetch a web page for detailed scouting reports or bracket previews.
- **use_browser**: Browse JS-heavy pages. Slower — use only when web_fetch fails.
- **lookup_team**: Find a team by name to get their slug, seed, and region.
- **calculator**: Evaluate math expressions.
- **submit_round**: Submit your picks for this round. Each pick is {"gameId": "...", "winnerId": "team-slug"}.
## Your Process
1. Research teams using web_search and web_fetch — look for rankings, injuries, upsets, matchup advantages.
2. Pick winners for all 32 games in this round.
3. Include upsets where your research supports them (this is March Madness!).
4. Call submit_round with your picks array.
Do not end with a prose bracket summary. Your final response must be a submit_round tool call.
Today's date: 2026-03-18
assistantMessage 2
Mar 18, 2026, 10:21 PMTool Call: web_search
{
"query": "2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket preview Round of 64 predictions"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "KenPom rankings top 50 March 2026"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "2026 March Madness betting odds first round"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "injuries 2026 NCAA tournament teams"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "NET rankings 2026 NCAA men's basketball"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "2026 March Madness expert picks upsets"
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/ncaa-bracket-predictions-model-says-surprising-march-madness-2026-tournament-picks/",
"title": "NCAA bracket predictions: Model reveals surprising March Madness ...",
"snippet": "Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. The Big Ten and Big 12 were two of the ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-wen4zKyhc",
"title": "2026 NCAA Tournament College Basketball Round 64 - YouTube",
"snippet": "March Madness Picks For Thursday, March 19th ONLY - 2026 NCAA Tournament College Basketball Round 64."
},
{
"url": "https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/ncaa-mens-tournament-bracket-picks-expert-predictions-analysis",
"title": "NCAA Men's Tournament Bracket Picks - FOX Sports",
"snippet": "Before the first game gets underway, our experts have filled out their brackets and made their predictions for how the 2026 NCAA Men's ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7123628/2026/03/17/march-madness-expert-bracket-picks-duke-champion/",
"title": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan ...",
"snippet": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan Marks has Duke winning it all ; 1 Duke. 8 Ohio State ; 5 St. John's. 4 Kansas ; 11 ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywbrwD07Cxc",
"title": "2026 NCAA Tournament College Basketball Round of 64 - YouTube",
"snippet": "Comments ; March Madness 2026 First Round Picks Part One | CBB Best Bets Mar 19. Sports Gambling Podcast - SGPN · 2K views ; Howard vs. UMBC LIVE ..."
}
]
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://kenpom.com/",
"title": "2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings",
"snippet": "2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings ; 3, Michigan 1, B10 ; 4, Florida 1, SEC ; 5, Houston 2, B12 ..."
},
{
"url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-2026-ranking-every-mens-ncaa-tournament-first-four-and-first-round-game-from-most-competitive-to-least-060130968.html",
"title": "March Madness 2026: Ranking every men's NCAA tournament First ...",
"snippet": "KenPom ratings can help you hunt for upsets ... Standings · Rankings · Stats · Teams · College Football Playoff · News · Soccer."
},
{
"url": "https://www.aol.com/sports/march-madness-2026-ranking-every-060130475.html",
"title": "March Madness 2026: Ranking every men's NCAA tournament First ...",
"snippet": "That aside, the Aggies are top 30 in both the KenPom (30th) and NCAA Net (26th) rankings; Villanova is 33rd and 36th respectively. The ..."
},
{
"url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/ncaab/ncaa-tournament-bracket-based-using-kenpom-ratings-sgc/",
"title": "Updated KenPom Rankings for the 2026 NCAA Tournament - BetMGM",
"snippet": "Updated KenPom Rankings for the 2026 NCAA Tournament ; 50, New Mexico, 64 ; 51, Seton Hall, 147 ; 52, Missouri, 50 ; 53, Washington, 63 ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-predictions-2026-kenpom-bracket/945668cd2309e4f4a2cdecdb",
"title": "Using KenPom to pick NCAA bracket upsets, Final Four",
"snippet": "KenPom ratings for 2026 March Madness. Top dozen teams in NCAA Tournament by overall KenPom ranking. 1. Duke (No. 1 seed in East)."
}
]
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/48217692/espn-2026-ncaa-tournament-men-bracket-game-odds",
"title": "Odds, spreads and totals for every game of the first round - ESPN",
"snippet": "Men's March Madness Giant Killers: Most probable first-round NCAA tournament ... Women's March Madness 2026 bracket: First look at all 68 teams."
},
{
"url": "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/",
"title": "2026 March Madness picks: Predictions for every first-round game in ...",
"snippet": "Expert NCAA Tournament picks for every 2026 first-round game, with matchup analysis, player insights and predictions for March Madness."
},
{
"url": "https://www.sbnation.com/march-madness/24481256/march-madness-odds-2026-first-round-ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament-spread-total",
"title": "Opening odds for first round of the 2026 NCAA men's basketball ...",
"snippet": "The first round then kicks off on Thursday, March 19. The national ... It only took two games for the first March Madness dagger of 2026."
},
{
"url": "https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/march-madness-odds-2026/",
"title": "2026 March Madness Odds: Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends for First ...",
"snippet": "For more, check out VegasInsider's 2026 NCAA Tournament futures odds. Featured News. FEATURED MAR 17, 2026. March Madness: How Would AI ..."
},
{
"url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/betting/article/march-madness-2026-bracket-predictions-picks-best-bets-for-every-2026-ncaa-tournament-game-142659815.html",
"title": "Best bets for every 2026 NCAA tournament game - Yahoo Sports",
"snippet": "2026 March Madness bracket odds: Best, worst tournament ... March Madness 2026: NCAA tournament watch times, bracket news, first-round ..."
}
]
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/march-madness-injuries-to-know-updates-for-key-players-ahead-of-the-mens-ncaa-tournament",
"title": "March Madness injuries to know: Updates for key players ahead of ...",
"snippet": "March Madness injuries to know: Updates for key players ahead of the men's NCAA Tournament ; Alabama. Aden Holloway (Non-Injury; arrested on ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.si.com/college-basketball/key-injuries-to-remember-mens-march-madness-bracket",
"title": "Key Injuries to Remember When Filling Out Your Men's March ...",
"snippet": "Patrick Ngongba II, Duke Patrick Ngongba II and fellow Blue Devils' starter Caleb Foster missed the end of the regular season and the ACC ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.rotowire.com/cbasketball/article/college-basketball-injuries-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-first-round-108144",
"title": "College Basketball Injuries: March Madness First Round - RotoWire",
"snippet": "In 2026, there is a lengthy list of recent injuries to some big-name players we need to watch out for. We'll take you through the most impactful ..."
},
{
"url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-4-tourney-teams-ripe-to-make-an-early-exit-133522098.html",
"title": "March Madness: 4 tourney teams ripe to make an early exit",
"snippet": "Purdue and North Carolina are among the big-name teams that are vulnerable heading into the NCAA tournament."
},
{
"url": "https://www.facebook.com/100087049233553/posts/high-profile-injuries-are-significantly-impacting-top-college-basketball-contend/895575070020793/",
"title": "High-profile injuries are significantly impacting top college ...",
"snippet": "Other Notable Injuries: Gonzaga's Braden Huff (knee), Tennessee's Nate Ament (leg), and Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr. (back) have all missed ..."
}
]
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings",
"title": "NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings",
"snippet": "1, Duke, 32-2, ACC, 10-1, 7-1, 15-0, 0-0, 1, 17-2, 6-0, 2-0, 7-0. 2, Michigan, 31-3, Big Ten, 11-0, 6-2, 14-1, 0-0, 2, 17-3, 5-0, 6-0, 3-0."
},
{
"url": "https://bballnet.com/",
"title": "2026 NET Rankings and Quad Wins",
"snippet": "Rank, Prev, School, Conf, Record. 1, 1, Duke · ACC, 32-2. 2, 2, Michigan · Big Ten, 31-3. 3, 3, Arizona · Big 12, 32-2. 4, 4, Florida · SEC, 26-7."
},
{
"url": "https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2026/net",
"title": "NET Ranking - Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com",
"snippet": "2026 Men's College Basketball NET Ranking: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) a ranking of teams based on five factors, team value index, net efficiency, ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/houston-iowa-state-gonzaga-michigan",
"title": "Men's College Basketball Top 10, Bubble Team NET Rankings",
"snippet": "Men's College Basketball Top 10, Bubble Team NET Rankings: A Top-10 Shakeup · 1. Michigan (previous: 1) · 2. Duke (previous: 2) · 3. Arizona ( ..."
},
{
"url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/ncaab/updated-college-basketball-net-rankings-for-ncaa-tournament-bm10/",
"title": "Updated NET Rankings for 2025-26 For NCAA Tournament - BetMGM",
"snippet": "NET Rankings for 2025-26 Season ; 4, Florida, 25-6 ; 5, Illinois, 24-7 ; 6, Gonzaga, 30-3 ; 7, Iowa St. 27-6."
}
]
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026",
"title": "Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament",
"snippet": "Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament · Editor's Picks · Joe Lunardi's ultimate guide to men's March Madness 2026."
},
{
"url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/espn-march-madness-analyst-predicts-180040217.html",
"title": "ESPN March Madness analyst predicts huge upset in NCAA ...",
"snippet": "The 2026 NCAA Tournament field is locked in and one ESPN March Madness analyst believes a major upset could be brewing in the first round."
},
{
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7123628/2026/03/17/march-madness-expert-bracket-picks-duke-champion/",
"title": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan ...",
"snippet": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan Marks has Duke winning it all ; 1 Duke. 8 Ohio State ; 5 St. John's. 4 Kansas ; 11 ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/ncaa-tournament-2026-bracket-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets-best-sleepers-march-madness-picks/",
"title": "NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising ...",
"snippet": "NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, best sleepers, March Madness picks ... Texas odds, First Four picks by expert ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.si.com/college-basketball/march-madness-brackets-expert-predictions-first-round-upsets-2026-mens-ncaa-tournament",
"title": "March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for First-Round Upsets ...",
"snippet": "March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for First-Round Upsets in the 2026 NCAA Men's Tournament. Upset picks can be hard to spot in the ..."
}
]
}assistantMessage 3
Mar 18, 2026, 10:21 PMTool Call: web_fetch
{
"url": "https://kenpom.com/"
}Tool Call: web_fetch
{
"url": "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/"
}Tool Call: web_fetch
{
"url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026"
}Tool Call: web_fetch
{
"url": "https://kenpom.com/bracket?year=2026"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "2026 NCAA first round upset picks 5 vs 12 8 vs 9"
}Tool Call: web_search
{
"query": "team rankings 2026 NCAA tournament KenPom NET for northern-iowa-panthers high-point-panthers mcneese-cowboys akron-zips"
}Tool Result: web_fetch
{
"content": "Remember me\n[Forgot password?](https://kenpom.com/password_request.php)\n\n[](https://kenpom.com/register-kenpom.php)[**SUBSCRIBE!**](https://kenpom.com/register-kenpom.php)\n\n[](https://doubletakeout.com/)[](https://bballanalytics.com/)\n\n### ADVANCED ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL\n\n[](https://kenpom.substack.com/)[](https://dunksandthrees.com/)\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n## 2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings\n\n[help](https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update)\n\n[02](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2002) · [03](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2003) · [04](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2004) · [05](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2005) · [06](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2006) · [07](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2007) · [08](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2008) · [09](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2009) · [10](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2010) · [11](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2011) · [12](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2012) · [13](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2013) · [14](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2014) · [15](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2015) · [16](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2016) · [17](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2017) · [18](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2018) · [19](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2019) · [20](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2020) · [21](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2021) · [22](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2022) · [23](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2023) · [24](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2024) · [25](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2025) · 26\n\nData through games of [Tuesday, March 17](https://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php?d=2026-03-17) (6205 games)\n\n| | | | | | | Strength of Schedule | NCSOS |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| [Rk](https://kenpom.com/index.php) | [Team](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=TeamName) | Conf | [W](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=Wins)- [L](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=Losses) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php) | [ORtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjOE) | [DRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) | [AdjT](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo) | [Luck](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOS) | [ORtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSO) | [DRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSD) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankNCSOS) |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 1 | [Duke](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke) 1 | [ACC](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC) | 32-2 | +38.88 | 128.0 | 4 | 89.1 | 2 | 65.4 | 287 | +.049 | 62 | +14.29 | 15 | 117.0 | 23 | 102.7 | 10 | +10.10 | 18 |\n| 2 | [Arizona](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Arizona) 1 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 32-2 | +37.60 | 127.6 | 6 | 90.0 | 3 | 69.8 | 55 | +.023 | 126 | +14.93 | 9 | 117.6 | 15 | 102.7 | 9 | +3.21 | 101 |\n| 3 | [Michigan](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Michigan) 1 | [B10](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B10) | 31-3 | +37.58 | 126.6 | 8 | 89.0 | 1 | 71.0 | 22 | +.045 | 67 | +16.66 | 3 | 119.2 | 3 | 102.5 | 5 | +12.49 | 11 |\n| 4 | [Florida](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida) 1 | [SEC](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=SEC) | 26-7 | +33.75 | 125.5 | 9 | 91.8 | 6 | 70.6 | 28 | -.036 | 288 | +15.99 | 4 | 119.4 | 2 | 103.4 | 26 | +7.93 | 31 |\n| 5 | [Houston](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Houston) 2 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 28-6 | +33.37 | 124.8 | 13 | 91.5 | 5 | 63.3 | 352 | -.006 | 204 | +13.55 | 24 | 116.9 | 25 | 103.3 | 25 | +0.88 | 157 |\n| 6 | [Iowa St.](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Iowa+St.) 2 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 27-7 | +32.37 | 123.8 | 20 | 91.4 | 4 | 66.6 | 226 | -.012 | 219 | +12.40 | 31 | 115.5 | 48 | 1"
}Tool Result: web_fetch
{
"content": "site: media \\| arena: collegebasketball \\| pageType: stories \\|\nsection: \\| slug: 2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket \\| sport: collegebasketball \\| route: article\\_single.us \\|\n6-keys: media/spln/collegebasketball/reg/free/stories\n\n[Skip to Main Content](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/#page-content)\n\nClose\n\nSign in with your TV provider\n\nIf not listed, please contact your TV provider.\n\n![[object Object] Logo](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/2020/04/22/e9ceb731-8b3f-4c60-98fe-090ab66a2997/screen-shot-2020-04-22-at-11-04-56-am.png)\n\nAll ProvidersXfinity\n\n# 2026 March Madness picks: Predictions for every first-round game in the bracket\n\n## From matchup advantages to player-level edges, Isaac Trotter's scouting-driven breakdown projects how every first-round game could unfold.\n\n[](https://www.cbssports.com/writers/isaac-trotter/)\n\nBy\n[Isaac Trotter](https://www.cbssports.com/writers/isaac-trotter/)\n\n6 hrs ago\n•\n21 min read\n\n\nKeytron Jordan, CBS Sports\n\nTrends flood the lead-up to the [NCAA Tournament](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/), but numbers without context rarely tell you what's actually about to happen in March. The real edges live in the matchups -- in how styles clash, where defenses crack and which players can tilt a game.\n\nThat's the approach here.\n\nThese aren't blind picks for every first-round game in the [bracket](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-bracket-2026-printable-mens-ncaa-tournament/). They're scouting reports -- built on data, personnel and the eye test -- to project how each matchup could unfold.\n\nThe [First Four continues Wednesday after a thrilling Tuesday](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2026-first-four-live-updates-scores-bracket-tuesday/live/). Here's a quick look at how we expect these last two games to play out.\n\n> **No. 16** Lehigh **vs. No. 16** Prairie View: One team has Nasir Whitlock. The other does not. **The pick:** Lehigh\n>\n> **No. 11** SMU **vs. No. 11** Miami (Ohio): RedHawks star wing Eian Elmer has to play his best defensive game of the season against SMU's Jaron Pierre if Miami (Ohio) wants to advance to the field of 68. SMU probably won't have BJ Edwards, but it has unleashed stud freshman forward Jaden Toombs, who could be a game-wrecker in this one. SMU controls the paint and hangs on for dear life. **The pick:** SMU\n\nOK. Now, let's get into the X's and O's and players who will shape these first-round contests. You can [find my full bracket here](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/).\n\n## [EAST REGION](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-ncaa-tournament-east-region-bracket-preview/)\n\n[](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/DUKE/duke-blue-devils/)\n\n[](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/SIENA/siena-saints/)\n\n**No. 1** [Duke](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/DUKE/duke-blue-devils/) **vs. No. 16** [Siena](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/SIENA/siena-saints/)\n\nDuke is the second-biggest team in the sport. Its size is simply overwhelming for mid-major foes. Even without [Caleb Foster](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/players/29233677/caleb-foster/) and Patrick Ngongba, Duke still trots out a seven-man rota"
}Tool Result: web_fetch
{
"content": "Skip to main content\n\nSkip to navigation\n\n\nTop Events\n\nNCAAM\n\nNCAAW\n\nNBA\n\nNHL\n\nPGA Tour\n\nLPGA Tour\n\nTGL\n\nTop Soccer\n\nMLB\n\nWorld Baseball Classic\n\nTennis (M)\n\nTennis (W)\n\nNFL\n\nNASCAR\n\nNCAAF\n\nUFC\n\nNLL (Lacrosse)\n\nPLL (Lacrosse)\n\nF1\n\nMen's NCAA Ice Hockey\n\nWomen's NCAA Ice Hockey\n\nNCAA Softball\n\nNCAA Baseball\n\nMen's NCAA Lacrosse\n\nWomen's NCAA Lacrosse\n\ncustom\n\nUEFA Champions League\n\nWomen's Super League\n\nConcacaf Champions Cup\n\nLiga MX\n\nNCAAM\n\n- [Top Events](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAAM](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAAW](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NBA](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NHL](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [PGA Tour](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [LPGA Tour](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [TGL](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Top Soccer](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [MLB](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [World Baseball Classic](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Tennis (M)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Tennis (W)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NFL](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NASCAR](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAAF](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [UFC](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NLL (Lacrosse)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [PLL (Lacrosse)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [F1](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Men's NCAA Ice Hockey](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Women's NCAA Ice Hockey](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAA Softball](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAA Baseball](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-kille"
}Tool Result: web_fetch
{
"content": "[](https://kenpom.com/register.php)\n\nE-mail Password Remember me\n[Forgot password?](https://kenpom.com/forgotpassword.php)\n\n\n\n- [](https://kenpom.com/)\n- [Stats](https://kenpom.com/bracket?year=2026#)\n - [Efficiency](https://kenpom.com/summary.php)\n - [Four Factors](https://kenpom.com/stats.php)\n - [Player Stats](https://kenpom.com/playerstats.php)\n - [Point Distribution](https://kenpom.com/pointdist.php)\n - [Height/Experience](https://kenpom.com/height.php)\n - [Misc. Team Stats](https://kenpom.com/teamstats.php)\n- [Blog](https://kenpom.com/blog \"Blog\")\n- [FanMatch](https://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php \"FanMatch\")\n- [Miscellany](https://kenpom.com/bracket?year=2026# \"FanMatch\")\n - [Game Rankings](https://kenpom.com/game_attrs.php)\n - [D-I Stats Trends](https://kenpom.com/trends.php)\n - [Ref Ratings](https://kenpom.com/officials.php)\n - [Home Court Ratings](https://kenpom.com/hca.php)\n - [Arena Capacity](https://kenpom.com/arenas.php)\n- [Contact](https://kenpom.com/contact.php \"Contact\")\n\n\n\n## I'm sorry. That page does not exist.\n\n"
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026",
"title": "Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament",
"snippet": "(12) High Point vs. (5) Wisconsin ... High Point is the only 12-seed with at least a 20% chance to win, according to the model, and this could be ..."
},
{
"url": "https://247sports.com/college/miami/longformarticle/march-madness-upset-picks-2026-ncaa-tournament-first-round-bracket-busters-277979844/",
"title": "March Madness Upset Picks: 2026 NCAA Tournament's five first ...",
"snippet": "CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein shares his five bracket busters for the 2026 NCAA Tournament's Round of 64."
},
{
"url": "https://www.si.com/college-basketball/march-madness-brackets-expert-predictions-first-round-upsets-2026-mens-ncaa-tournament",
"title": "March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for First-Round Upsets ...",
"snippet": "Both Fischer and Sweeney have the five-seeds sweeping the 12-seeds in the first round, and Forde has just one such upset—No. 12 Akron over No."
},
{
"url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/ncaa-tournament-2026-bracket-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets-best-sleepers-march-madness-picks/",
"title": "NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising ...",
"snippet": "Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks. One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2026/03/17/march-madness-predictions-most-likely-upsets-ncaa-tournament-2026-first-round/89188373007/",
"title": "March Madness upset predictions: Ranking most likely first round ...",
"snippet": "Ranking 8 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament first round · 1. No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville · 2. No. 11 VCU over No."
}
]
}Tool Result: web_search
{
"results": [
{
"url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-2026-ranking-every-mens-ncaa-tournament-first-round-game-from-best-to-worst-142739915.html",
"title": "March Madness 2026: Ranking every men's NCAA tournament first ...",
"snippet": "Northern Iowa entered the season with high expectations after winning 20 games the previous season and bringing back players who logged a ..."
},
{
"url": "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-ncaa-tournament-bracket-ranking-every-team-march-madness-1-to-68/",
"title": "2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Ranking every team playing in ...",
"snippet": "2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Ranking every team playing in March Madness from No. 1 to 68 - CBS Sports."
},
{
"url": "https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25406020-power-ranking-all-68-teams-2026-mens-ncaa-tournament",
"title": "Power Ranking All 68 Teams in the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament",
"snippet": "Selection Sunday has finally arrived, and with it the 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament field has been set."
},
{
"url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48156563/march-madness-2026-every-team-mens-ncaa-tournament-bracket-explained",
"title": "Men's March Madness 2026 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams - ESPN",
"snippet": "Northern Iowa Panthers. Region: East Record: 23-12. Tournament ceiling ... High Point Panthers. Region: West Record: 30-4. Tournament ..."
},
{
"url": "https://medium.com/@jamesleroywilson/ranking-the-2026-ncaa-mens-tournament-teams-c2d9e45a494d",
"title": "Ranking the 2026 NCAA Men's Tournament Teams - Medium",
"snippet": "Ranking the 2026 NCAA Men's Tournament Teams Will point differential make a difference ... Northern Iowa (12-E) 46, 77 123; SMU 75,49 124 Faces ..."
}
]
}assistantMessage 4
Mar 18, 2026, 10:21 PMTool Call: submit_round
{
"picks": [
{
"gameId": "game-1",
"winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
},
{
"gameId": "game-2",
"winnerId": "ohio-state-buckeyes"
},
{
"gameId": "game-3",
"winnerId": "st-johns-red-storm"
},
{
"gameId": "game-4",
"winnerId": "kansas-jayhawks"
},
{
"gameId": "game-5",
"winnerId": "south-florida-bulls"
},
{
"gameId": "game-6",
"winnerId": "michigan-state-spartans"
},
{
"gameId": "game-7",
"winnerId": "ucla-bruins"
},
{
"gameId": "game-8",
"winnerId": "uconn-huskies"
},
{
"gameId": "game-9",
"winnerId": "arizona-wildcats"
},
{
"gameId": "game-10",
"winnerId": "villanova-wildcats"
},
{
"gameId": "game-11",
"winnerId": "high-point-panthers"
},
{
"gameId": "game-12",
"winnerId": "arkansas-razorbacks"
},
{
"gameId": "game-13",
"winnerId": "byu-cougars"
},
{
"gameId": "game-14",
"winnerId": "gonzaga-bulldogs"
},
{
"gameId": "game-15",
"winnerId": "miami-hurricanes"
},
{
"gameId": "game-16",
"winnerId": "purdue-boilermakers"
},
{
"gameId": "game-17",
"winnerId": "florida-gators"
},
{
"gameId": "game-18",
"winnerId": "iowa-hawkeyes"
},
{
"gameId": "game-19",
"winnerId": "vanderbilt-commodores"
},
{
"gameId": "game-20",
"winnerId": "nebraska-cornhuskers"
},
{
"gameId": "game-21",
"winnerId": "vcu-rams"
},
{
"gameId": "game-22",
"winnerId": "illinois-fighting-illini"
},
{
"gameId": "game-23",
"winnerId": "saint-marys-gaels"
},
{
"gameId": "game-24",
"winnerId": "houston-cougars"
},
{
"gameId": "game-25",
"winnerId": "michigan-wolverines"
},
{
"gameId": "game-26",
"winnerId": "georgia-bulldogs"
},
{
"gameId": "game-27",
"winnerId": "akron-zips"
},
{
"gameId": "game-28",
"winnerId": "alabama-crimson-tide"
},
{
"gameId": "game-29",
"winnerId": "tennessee-volunteers"
},
{
"gameId": "game-30",
"winnerId": "virginia-cavaliers"
},
{
"gameId": "game-31",
"winnerId": "kentucky-wildcats"
},
{
"gameId": "game-32",
"winnerId": "iowa-state-cyclones"
}
]
}Tool Result: submit_round
{
"submitted": true
}userMessage 5
Mar 18, 2026, 10:21 PM## Round 2 of 6: Round of 32
Your previous picks advanced these teams. Now pick winners for the next round.
### Your Prior Picks
Round of 64: game-1 → duke-blue-devils
Round of 64: game-2 → ohio-state-buckeyes
Round of 64: game-3 → st-johns-red-storm
Round of 64: game-4 → kansas-jayhawks
Round of 64: game-5 → south-florida-bulls
Round of 64: game-6 → michigan-state-spartans
Round of 64: game-7 → ucla-bruins
Round of 64: game-8 → uconn-huskies
Round of 64: game-9 → arizona-wildcats
Round of 64: game-10 → villanova-wildcats
Round of 64: game-11 → high-point-panthers
Round of 64: game-12 → arkansas-razorbacks
Round of 64: game-13 → byu-cougars
Round of 64: game-14 → gonzaga-bulldogs
Round of 64: game-15 → miami-hurricanes
Round of 64: game-16 → purdue-boilermakers
Round of 64: game-17 → florida-gators
Round of 64: game-18 → iowa-hawkeyes
Round of 64: game-19 → vanderbilt-commodores
Round of 64: game-20 → nebraska-cornhuskers
Round of 64: game-21 → vcu-rams
Round of 64: game-22 → illinois-fighting-illini
Round of 64: game-23 → saint-marys-gaels
Round of 64: game-24 → houston-cougars
Round of 64: game-25 → michigan-wolverines
Round of 64: game-26 → georgia-bulldogs
Round of 64: game-27 → akron-zips
Round of 64: game-28 → alabama-crimson-tide
Round of 64: game-29 → tennessee-volunteers
Round of 64: game-30 → virginia-cavaliers
Round of 64: game-31 → kentucky-wildcats
Round of 64: game-32 → iowa-state-cyclones
### Current Matchups (derived from your winners)
r32-east-1: duke-blue-devils vs ohio-state-buckeyes
r32-east-2: st-johns-red-storm vs kansas-jayhawks
r32-east-3: south-florida-bulls vs michigan-state-spartans
r32-east-4: ucla-bruins vs uconn-huskies
r32-west-1: arizona-wildcats vs villanova-wildcats
r32-west-2: high-point-panthers vs arkansas-razorbacks
r32-west-3: byu-cougars vs gonzaga-bulldogs
r32-west-4: miami-hurricanes vs purdue-boilermakers
r32-south-1: florida-gators vs iowa-hawkeyes
r32-south-2: vanderbilt-commodores vs nebraska-cornhuskers
r32-south-3: vcu-rams vs illinois-fighting-illini
r32-south-4: saint-marys-gaels vs houston-cougars
r32-midwest-1: michigan-wolverines vs georgia-bulldogs
r32-midwest-2: akron-zips vs alabama-crimson-tide
r32-midwest-3: tennessee-volunteers vs virginia-cavaliers
r32-midwest-4: kentucky-wildcats vs iowa-state-cyclones
Pick the winner of each game below. You may use web_search and web_fetch to research matchups before deciding.
Do not ask follow-up questions. Everything you need is in the matchup list above. If you research, use the exact tool names `web_search` and `web_fetch`.
## Tools Available
- **web_search**, **web_fetch**, **use_browser**, **lookup_team**, **calculator**, **submit_round**
Call submit_round with your 16 pick(s) when ready.
Do not end with a prose recap. Your final response must be a submit_round tool call.
Tokens
- Input
- 20959
- Output
- 4994
- Reasoning
- 3962